Commissioner's Pick Thu Week 15

Tonight's game: ATL @ TB. I know, the expectations are pretty low for this game. Both teams are 1-4 in their last five games. But let's not forget in week 6 the Falcons upset the Bills, can they upset a 4.5 point favorite tonight? I'm picking TB.

WAS QB Jayden Daniels will miss another game, LV QB Geno Smith will miss this week and Kenny Pickett will get the start. IND signed 44 yr old Phillip Rivers to the practice squad, he last played in 2020.

This weeks schedule seems to favor the home teams. In my initial scan through I had picked every home team except one and I knew that couldn't be right. I then scrutinized the entire schedule again and went from 15-1 to 14-2. I shook my head in disbelief, am I going to go against what seems logical choices and change three more games? Because an 11-5 record seems more realistic but what teams do I need to change? The best record for the home team this season has been 12-4 while on the flip side the best record for the visitors has been 10-4. It now just seems like I am second guessing myself. For example, MIA@PIT, it will be around 20 degrees in Pittsburgh at game time and we all know that Miami doesn't do well when the temperature is below freezing but the Dolphins are riding a four game win streak. I just can't see myself to change that game. Then we have GB@DEN, the Broncos are 6-0 this season at home but are winning ugly. The Packers record isn't as impressive once you look at whom they have beaten. But then we have to take into account the upset factor. Do we think Phillip Rivers (that is if he is elevated to starter) can swoop in and beat the Seahawks?

The Grande Digest provides the overall Home-Away record, and the question is, does anyone else look at the home-away records when deciding their picks?

I have reluctantly settled on my final picks and processed almost everyone else's. I see that the same games I have had trouble with are the ones that don't fall under the unanimous picks.

There was an interesting article on Yahoo sports about BAL HC John Harbaugh being in the same boat as Mike Tomlin, lack of playoff success. It got me wondering, even though unlikely, what if every AFC North team would fire their head coach. That would make the AFC North unpredictable for 2026.